Veteran pollster John Zogby takes readers beyond the front page of the sports section of the New York Times-to the complex motives and values that motivate public opinion-in Beyond the Horse Race: How to Read Polls and Why We Should. Rather than predicting which way the game will go, Zogby argues that polling can be a rich source of insight into society if approached with reflection and caution.
He illustrates this through personal anecdotes and real-life examples of how polls can serve as conduits for deeper social and cultural trends.
Good Polls vs. Bad Polls
He begins by explaining the difference between good and bad polls and demonstrates, using examples from his own experience, that well-crafted surveys are richly informative, bringing policymakers informed choices, whereas badly constructed ones result in errant conclusions. He uses some examples like 2000 Reuters-MSNBC National Tracking Poll-to depict how clarity and strong methodology make all the difference between a poll that might help bring clients closer to understanding public sentiments and one that makes just noise.
Voting in the Digital Age Since technology is always changing, Zogby further explains how social and digital changes have changed the way polling is done. As more of the world goes online, traditional ways of polling had to change. Zogby emphasizes the principles of the design of polling and the wording of questions but recognizes that the new nature of digital communication requires entirely new approaches, pushing online focus national survey services into growth and making it possible to capture the view of a much, much larger and sometimes more nuanced view on public opinion. The Art of Reading Polls
One of the shining chapters of this book is Getting the Polls Right and How to Read Them Right, where Zogby explains how precise interpretation of polls requires subtle considerations. He talks about races like the Pataki-Cuomo contest of the year 1994 where misplacing polling data could have changed a campaign’s moves. He references going beyond top-line numbers-capturing what the public was really saying: “within the context of this 2016 presidential election study, it became apparent that deeper analysis was necessary to reveal the message in the data.”.
Polling as a Science of Human Behavior
Throughout the book, Zogby pointed out that polling is just as much about understanding human behavior as it is about collecting data. He cautions against overuse of numbers, stating that every response is a human being with particular reasons. Zogby’s new methodology came in the form of cluster groups of voters according to cultural affiliations instead of the more traditional demographics; he classified people according to habits like “weekly Walmart shoppers” or “NASCAR fans.”
Learning from Polling Mistakes
Zogby holds nothing back in detailing lessons learned from mistakes after three decades of a stellar career. He frequently, in Chapter 7, remarks on underestimating the Democratic surge in New York’s 1998 Senate races and foreordaining John Kerry’s victory in 2004. He does not criticize these as errors but as insightful warnings about the gigantic and unfathomable job of attempting to foresee human behavior.
Conclusion:
Voting for Outcomes in Insight This is not just for the polling field alone but for anyone interested in how public opinion takes shape and how measured it is. Zogby’s storytelling and deep analysis raise the value of polling when such is implemented thoughtfully and with integrity. To opinion survey companies or market research company firms seeking to quantify public opinion, Zogby’s approach serves as a useful reminder that any polls are about perception and insight into the collective psyche and not merely a way of predicting winners and losers. This highly engaging book sees Zogby expose the fact that proper polling will hint at that window into the morals and drives of society and thus becomes an irreplaceable tool in understanding the world around us.